Dynamics of Land Use Change in the Florida Panhandle Using GIS Optimization Models: A Framework to Determine the Impact of Climate Change on the Florida Panhandle

The western “panhandle” region of Florida experienced greater development in the years 2000-2010 than the previous 40 years and greater than nearly all other parts of the United States. One reason is the fact that much of the coastal land in the peninsula of Florida is already developed whereas much of the Panhandle is empty. Another reason is the fact that increasing temperatures and less severe winters in the Panhandle have made the region more attractive too people for habitation. Climate change is changing land use and land cover in the Panhandle in a number of ways with the most common shift being from managed forest and agricultural land to urban use. The consequences of this change have been increased pressure on the resources and exacerbated land use conflict. To address the challenges of future land use, a GIS optimization model was developed to determine the spatial and temporal status quo relationships between the drivers and resulting patterns of land uses due to climate change. Resulting models of land use preference and projected population allocation points to the direction of the limiting factor of climate change: saltwater intrusion and increasing water demand.